Matchweek 4

First points dropped. Charlton 1–1 at West Brom ends the perfect record at nine from nine. It took four games and a trip to the Hawthorns, which is a respectable way for it to go, and Albion have now taken something from a fourth of their five — the unbeaten start died at Middlesbrough, the not-losing habit did not.

Eight conceded in two. Millwall lost 0–3 at home to Wrexham, four days after being beaten 5–1 at Southampton. They won their opening two games and have not scored since. A side that spent August looking like a play-off outfit now has the worst four-day stretch in the division and a home defeat to a promoted club to explain.

Still nothing for Preston. 1–3 at home to Bristol City, a fourth defeat in four, and the second week running they have been beaten by a scoreline that flattered them. Three days after MW3 the record read played three, lost three, one shot on target in the most recent. It now reads played four.

Six goals in the relegated derby. West Ham 4–2 Wolves. Two clubs who came down together, £150m of Premier League squad between them, and a game that looked nothing like either of them thinks it still is.

Note for the model. This round was played on 1 and 2 September. Saturday's coupon was written on the 3rd, and its form notes stop on 29 August — Derby are described as having lost three straight, four days after they won 2–0 at Portsmouth; Sheffield United as having drawn twice, after they had beaten Bolton 3–2. Both are on the coupon. The probabilities are captured and stay as they are, which is the point of capturing them. But the reasoning behind two of thirteen rows was built on a table that had already changed, and that is a process failure rather than a forecasting one.

Four of twelve finished level, which is the fourth round running that the Championship has produced draws in bulk.