Lauantaivakio
8+0 · 5 singles, 8 doubles · 256 rows
| Outcome | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| All 13 covered | 0.73% | 1 in 136 |
| Exactly 12 | 4.49% | 1 in 22 |
| Exactly 11 | 12.50% | 1 in 8 |
| Exactly 10 | 21.01% | 1 in 5 |
The best round so far on hits. Doesn't mean as much as the headline number suggests, for reasons below.
The margin is Millwall. The forecast went in on Thursday with Millwall clear favourites at home to Bolton, and they won 4–0. That one match is worth more than the round's whole margin; take it out and the round is a loss on points. Being right about a heavy favourite by a heavy scoreline isn't a skill being tested here — it's the coupon getting the easy one right.
The mirror image is West Brom. West Brom beat Watford 1–0, and it was the costliest leg on the coupon — the forecast had backed the away side there. One correct heavy favourite and one wrong home pick very nearly cancel out; that they didn't quite is most of the round's margin.
What I got wrong. Burnley at home to Bristol City went in as a single on a side that hadn't won in four and then produced eight shots and 0.26 xG. That was reputation doing the forecasting. Brentford against Sunderland was the other single to fail, and the draw was fair: Sunderland had five shots on target to two. Forest against Spurs was the most evenly matched fixture on the card and I left the draw off it.
Draws. Two landed unmarked, both in the Premier League, and neither in the kind of balanced Championship fixture the log has been flagging. The pattern didn't recur. Under 8+0 the draw is excluded from most of the coupon, so losing two or three a round is arithmetic, not a bias to be corrected. Keep measuring it; stop lamenting it.
The adjustments. The West Ham trim cost again, against a Derby side that didn't register a shot on target, and has been retired. The Hull nudge landed fine again: one data point, not a rule. The balanced-fixture draw raise paid on Forest and cost on Sheffield United, and stays unproven.
Note for the model. The forecast is written on Thursday, days before kickoff — which means it's working with Thursday's team news, not Saturday's. Millwall and West Brom this week, Blackburn and Norwich the week before: several of the costliest legs each round are matches where something changed between when the number was written and when the whistle went. Worth deciding whether to write later, or accept that some of every round's result is timing rather than judgement.