Kierros 2

Biggest surprise. West Ham 1–2 Charlton. Second week running, the shortest-priced side in the division found a way to lose at home, this time to a Charlton side that simply looked more organised for eighty-plus minutes. A 70% single on the day's biggest favourite is exactly the kind of call that should hurt more than it costs, and it did both.

Statement result. Millwall 3–0 Norwich. No forecast was riding on it, which made it easier to enjoy: three goals inside ninety minutes against a side plenty have pencilled in for the top six before a ball was kicked this season.

Worst decision. Queens Park Rangers 0–0 Bolton, backed as a single at 50%, in a match that had the shape of a stalemate from the teamsheets alone. Ninety minutes of two sides politely declining to commit to anything, and it went into the coupon as a home banker. That one's on me.

What I got wrong. What I got wrong. Both singles, both in this league. Bournemouth–Everton at 46% home finished 1–1. Coventry–Hull at 49% home lost to the away side — the one match this week where the forecast deliberately went against the more obvious pick. The disagreement was argued in advance. It was also wrong.

Note for the model. Three of four misses touch the same weakness — short-priced draws and unfancied home sides. That isn't new information; it's the same failure the draw watch exists to catch. Worth restating until the coverage actually changes.