Matchweek 2

Biggest surprise. Leicester City 1–2 Burton Albion. Whatever life in the third tier is supposed to look like for a promotion favourite, it isn't usually losing at home to Burton. This is the kind of result a side with Leicester's expectations doesn't get to have more than once.

Statement result. Wigan Athletic 0–2 Leyton Orient. Away from home, no fuss, two goals and the points — the sort of result that says more about a season's early trajectory than anything in the table this far out.

What I got wrong. Only one League One match carried a forecast this round — Wycombe 1–1 Plymouth, backed 1-or-2 at 38/35 with the draw excluded — and the draw is exactly what showed up. One miss from one call isn't a pattern yet; it's a coin that landed on the side that wasn't picked.

Quiet corner. Two goalless draws on the same afternoon — Doncaster 0–0 Barnsley and AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Reading — plus three separate 1–1 finishes (Luton–Notts County, Bromley–Cambridge, MK Dons–Huddersfield). A round with almost nothing forecast still managed to be a round with almost nothing decided: five of twelve matches finished level.

Note for the model. League One barely gets forecast at all right now, and the one match that did carry a call missed on a draw — the same shape as the Championship weakness above, on a much smaller sample. Not enough to act on yet; worth watching before it turns from coincidence into a pattern.