Matchweek 5

Biggest surprise. Leicester 0–4 Oxford. Ten years after winning the Premier League, Leicester lost 4–0 at home in the third tier to the club that came down with them, managed by a man in his first permanent job. They were home favourites, had just won their first game of the season, and were beaten on every measure that matters: 2.31 xG to 1.03, one down at half-time, four by the end.

Say when it was luck. Barnsley 1–5 Stevenage was 1–1 at half-time, then Stevenage scored four. The xG was nearly level, 1.93 to 1.83. That isn't a hammering on the underlying numbers; it's a second half in which everything Stevenage hit went in. Barnsley shouldn't read much into it, and neither should anyone pricing Stevenage next week.

Top, and not entirely convincing. Sheffield Wednesday won 2–1 at Peterborough with 0.96 xG against 2.25 and stay top. A lead built on that kind of afternoon needs watching, not celebrating.

Blown. Wycombe led MK Dons 2–0 at half-time and drew 3–3. They are still without a win. MK Dons have now drawn four of five, which is a talent of sorts.

Also. Stockport were 3–0 up at Wigan by the break and won 4–0; Wigan are bottom. Reading beat Blackpool 3–1 on 3.5 xG to 0.51 and will have to wait for their game in hand, after the rearranged trip to Oxford was called off for the Carabao Cup. Luton had 23 shots to Leyton Orient's seven and drew 1–1.

No coupon fixtures this week, so no forecasts to answer for.